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Publications

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Berman, J., R. Torn, G. Romine, and M. Weisman, 2017: Sensitivity of Northern Great Plains Convection Forecasts to Upstream and Downstream Forecast Errors. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0353.1.

Burlingame, B., C. Evans, and P. Roebber, 2017: The Influence of PBL Parameterization on the Practical Predictability of Convection Initiation During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Wea. Forecasting. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-16-0174.1.

Coniglio, M. C., G. S. Romine, D. D. Turner, & R. D. Torn, 2019: Impacts of Targeted AERI and Doppler Lidar Wind Retrievals on Short-Term Forecasts of the Initiation and Early Evolution of Thunderstorms, Monthly Weather Review, 147(4), 1149-1170, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0351.1.

Coniglio, M., S. Hitchcock, and K. Knopfmeier, 2016: Impact of assimilating preconvective upsonde observations on short-term forecasts of convection observed during MPEX. Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0091.1.

Hill, A. J., C. C. Weiss, & B. C. Ancell, 2016: Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis for Mesoscale Forecasts of Dryline Convection Initiation. Monthly Weather Review, 144(11), 4161-4182, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0338.1.

Hill, A. J., C. C. Weiss, & B. C. Ancell, 2020: Factors Influencing Ensemble Sensitivity–Based Targeted Observing Predictions at Convection-Allowing Resolutions. Monthly Weather Review, 148(11), 4497-4517, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-20-0015.1.

Hitchcock, S. M., M. C. Coniglio, and K. H. Knopfmeier, 2016: Impact of MPEX upsonde observations on ensemble analyses and forecasts of the 31 May 2013 convective event over Oklahoma. Mon. Wea. Rev., doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0344.1.

Jones, T. A., X. Wang, P. Skinner, A. Johnson, & Y. Wang, 2018: Assimilation of GOES-13 Imager Clear-Sky Water Vapor (6.5 μm) Radiances into a Warn-on-Forecast System. Monthly Weather Review, 146(4), 1077-1107, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0280.1.

Keclik, A., C. Evans, P. Roebber, and G. Romine, 2017: The Influence of Assimilated Upstream, Pre-Convective Dropsonde Observations on Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0159.1.

Kerr, C. A., D. J. Stensrud, & X. Wang, 2019: Diagnosing Convective Dependencies on Near-Storm Environments Using Ensemble Sensitivity Analyses, Monthly Weather Review, 147(2), 495-517, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0140.1.

Kerr, C., D. Stensrud, and X. Wang, 2016: Verification of convection-allowing model ensemble analyses of near-storm environments using MPEX upsonde observations. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0287.1.

Majumdar, S. J., 2016: A Review of Targeted Observations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(12), 2287-2303, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00259.1.

Romine, G., C. Schwartz, R. Torn, and M. Weisman, 2016: Impact of assimilating dropsonde observations from MPEX on ensemble forecasts of severe weather events. Mon. Wea. Rev., doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0407.1.

Schumacher, Russ S., 2015: Resolution Dependence of Initiation and Upscale Growth of Deep Convection in Convection-Allowing Forecasts of the 31 May–1 June 2013 Supercell and MCS. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 4331–4354, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0179.1.

Schwartz, C. S., G. S. Romine, M. L. Weisman, R. A. Sobash, K. R. Fossell, K. W. Manning, & S. B. Trier, 2015: A Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System Initialized by Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses. Weather and Forecasting, 30(5), 1158-1181, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-15-0013.1.

Schwartz, C. S., G. S. Romine, R. A. Sobash, K. R. Fossell, & M. L. Weisman, 2019: NCAR’s Real-Time Convection-Allowing Ensemble Project, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100(2), 321-343, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0297.1.

Schwartz, C., G. Romine, K. Fossell, R. Sobash, and M. Weisman, 2017: Toward 1-km ensemble forecasts over large domains. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0410.1.

Sobash, R. A., C. S. Schwartz, G. S. Romine, K. R. Fossell, & M. L. Weisman, 2016: Severe Weather Prediction Using Storm Surrogates from an Ensemble Forecasting System. Weather and Forecasting, 31(1), 255-271, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-15-0138.1.

Torn, R. D., and G. S. Romine, 2015: Sensitivity of Central Oklahoma Convection Forecasts to Upstream Potential Vorticity Anomalies during Two Strongly Forced Cases during MPEX. Monthly Weather Review, 143, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0085.1.

Torn, R., G. Romine, and T. Galarneau Jr., 2017: Sensitivity of Dryline Convection Forecasts to Upstream Forecast Errors for Two Weakly Forced MPEX Cases. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0457.1.

Trapp, R. J., 2014: On the Significance of Multiple Consecutive Days of Tornado Activity. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 1452-1459, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00347.1

Trapp, R. J., D. J. Stensrud, M. C. Coniglio, R. S. Schumacher, M. E. Baldwin, S. Waugh, and D. T. Conlee, 2015: Mobile Radiosonde Deployments during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Rapid and Adaptive Sampling of Upscale Convective Feedbacks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00258.1.

Trapp, R., and J. Woznicki, 2017: Convectively induced stabilizations and subsequent recovery with supercell thunderstorms during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0266.1.

Trier, S. B., G. S. Romine, D. A. Ahijevych, R. J. Trapp, R. S. Schumacher, M. C. Coniglio, and D. J. Stensrud, 2015: Mesoscale Thermodynamic Influences on Convection Initiation near a Surface Dryline in a Convection-Permitting Ensemble. Monthly Weather Review, 143, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0133.1.

Wade, A., M. Coniglio, and C. Ziegler, 2018: Comparison of Near- and Far-field Supercell Inflow Environments using Radiosonde Observations. Mon. Wea. Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0276.1.

Weisman, M. L., R. J. Trapp, G. S. Romine, C. Davis, R. Torn, M. Baldwin, L. Bosart, J. Brown, M. Coniglio, D. Dowell, A. C. Evans, T. J. Galarneau Jr., J. Haggerty, T. Hock, K. Manning, P. Roebber, P. Romashkin, R. Schumacher, C. S. Schwartz, R. Sobash, D. Stensrud, and S. B. Trier, 2015: The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00281.1.

Conference Proceedings

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Baldwin, M. E. and L. C. Dawson, 2017: Forecast Evaluation for Convective Features. 28th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 24th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 130.

Berman, Jeremy D., 2015: Applying Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis to WRF Convection Forecasts in the Northern Great Plains. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis And Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, Illinois.

Bosart, Lance F., 2013: High Plains Deep Convection: The Forecast Challenges of Predicting Diurnally Varying Mesoscale and Synoptic Scale Interactions over Complex Terrain. Proceedings, 15th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Portland, OR.

Bosart, Lance F., 2014: On the Formation, Structure, and Evolution of an Eastern Pacific Upper-level Disturbance that Contributed to Severe Weather East of the Rockies during MPEX. Proceedings, 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Atlanta, GA.

Burlingame, Bryan M., 2015: Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization’s Control on Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting/23rd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, Illinois.

Davis, Christopher M., 2013: Probing the Tropopause Region of Mesoscale Weather Systems Using a Microwave Temperature Profiler. Proceedings, 15th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Portland OR.

Evans, Clark, 2015: The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Overview and Results from a Realtime Ensemble-Based Forecast System. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, IL.

Friedlein, Matthew, 2015: Evolution of the 30 June 2014 Double Derecho Event in Northern Illinois & Northwest Indiana. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, Illinois.

Galarneau Jr., T. J., 2014: Comparison of Operational Model Analyses with MPEX Dropsondes. Proceedings, 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Urbana, IL.

Guastini, Corey T., 2014: The Role of an Upper-Level Potential Vorticity Anomaly in a Severe Weather Outbreak During MPEX. Proceedings, 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Atlanta, GA.

Haggerty, J., K. Schick, M. J. Mahoney, and Boon Lim, 2014: The NCAR Microwave Temperature Profiler: Data applications from recent deployments. Proceedings, Microwave Radiometry and Remote Sensing of the Environment (MicroRad), 2014 13th Specialist Meeting, Pasadena, CA, 133-135.

Hitchcock, Stacey M., 2014: Impact of Targeted Afternoon Radiosonde Observations on Convection-Permitting Forecasts of the 31 May 2013 Convective Event in Oklahoma. Proceedings, Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts, Atlanta, GA.

Keclik, Alexandra M., 2015: The Influence of Assimilating Targeted Observations upon Ensemble Forecasts of Convection Initiation. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting/23rd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, IL.

Kerr, Christopher A., 2015: Significance of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear in Convective Upscale Growth: Observations and Model Analyses. Proceedings, 16th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Boston, Massachusetts.

Lenning, Eric, 2015: Storm Scale Meteorological Processes in the 30 June 2014 Double Derecho Event. Proceedings, 27th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting/23rd Conference On Numerical Weather Prediction, Chicago, Illinois.

Romine, G., 2014: MPEX: Improving forecasts of severe convective storms through targeted observations. Proceedings, 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Urbana, IL.

Schaumacher, Russ S., Colorado State University, Coniglio, M.C., Trapp, R.J., Baldwin, M.E., Stensrud, D.J., 2014: Overview and preliminary results of mobile upsonde operations during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Proceedings, 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Atlanta, GA.

Schumacher, Russ S., 2015: Resolution Dependence of Initiation and Upscale Growth of Deep Convection in Convection-Allowing Forecasts of the 31 May—1 June 2013 Supercell and MCS. Proceedings, 16th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Boston Massachusetts.

Texas A&M University, Hernandez, J., Thomas, C., Sodowsky, R., Barta, L., Holt, C., Conlee, D., 2014: Mobile Upper Air Operations in Support of the MPEX Field Experiment. Proceedings, 13th Annual Student Conference, Atlanta, GA.

Torn, R. D., 2014: Evaluating the Sensitivity of Convection Forecasts with Large Synoptic Forcing During MPEX. Proceedings, 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Urbana, IL.

Weisman, M. L., 2014: The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Overview and Results from a Realtime Ensemble-Based Forecast System. Proceedings, 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Urbana, IL.

Weisman, Morris, 2015: The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): Overview and Results from a Realtime Ensemble-Based Forecast System. Proceedings, 16th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Boston, Massachusetts.

Weisman, Morris, Trapp, J., Bosart, L., Brown, J.M., Davis, C., Dowell, D.C., Romine, G., Schumacher, R.S., Stensrud, D.J., Torn, R.D., 2014: The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): An Ensemble-Forcast-Based Mesoscale Field Campaign. Proceedings, 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Atlanta, GA.

Woznicki, J. M., 2014: Potential Vorticity Upscale Feedbacks Observed During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). Proceedings, Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts, Atlanta, GA.

Woznicki, J. M., 2014: Upscale Feedbacks During the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment. Proceedings, 27th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Urbana, IL.

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