VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT MAY 6 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO TARGET AREA: NW TX SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: 18/21Z sndgs requested from all VORTEX sites except TOP. Archive II requested from all 88D sites. DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: RECOVERY OF AMS EXPCD THIS AFTN OVR W TX BHD MCS CRNTLY MOVG THRU OK/NRN TX. 15Z SFC ANAL INDCS SFC BNDRY LIFTG NWD TWD W TX, HAVING PASSED MAF. MSTR/INSTBY EXPCD TO RTN NWD/NWWD INTO NW TX, SETTING UP DRYLN N-S OVR EXTRM WRN TX. RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION OF AMS EXPCD TO BE RAPID, AS LACK OF CI UPSTRM AND EROSION OF CRNT LOW CLDS RESULTS IN STG DIURNAL HTG. DVLPMT EXPCD BY MIDAFTN NR WMFNT/DRYLN INTRSXN, WHICH IS EXPCD TO BE BTWN LBB-CDS-ABI. OTR DVLPMT LKLY SWD ALG DRYLN INTO SWRN TX, AND NWD THRU TX PNHDL INTO SWRN KS. WE WL BE MONITORING WRN KS AREA ALSO FOR SUPERCELL POTL. ALTHO RTN OF DEEPER MSTR AND STG INSTBY IS LESS LKLY FRTHR N, WRN KS AREA WL BE UNDER MORE FVBL JET DYNAMICS AND THUS VRY FVBL SHEAR - ESPLY IF LL WNDS CAN STAY BACKED. ARMADA PLANS TO HEAD W INITIALLY AND MAINTAIN OPTIONS N OR S FM TX PNHDL. SUN LOOKS POTENT AS POWERHOUSE NEG-TILT SYS SWINGS INTO PLAINS AND DRYLN PUNCHES EWD INTO KS/OK. BACKING OF UPR FLOW TO SLY MAY WKN SHEAR AND PREVENT COUPLING OF STG UPR AND LL JETS, THUS RESULTING IN MORE OF A SQLN SCENARIO AS POTENT DYNAMIC FORCING IMPINGES ON SFC BNDRY. WDSPRD CONVCTN EXPCD WL REDUCEWL HEAD W TO OVRSPRD MUCH OF AREA TNGT IN RESPONSE TO STG LL JET AS HI PLAINS ACTVTY SPRDS EWD. EFFECTS OF THIS CONVCTN WL LKLY PLAY A BIG ROLE ON WHERE, WHEN, AND IF ON DAY 2. ATTM TEND TO FAVOR CNTRL KS ON DAY2 AS NGM (00Z RUN) PROGS EXTRM INSTBY THERE AND CONVCTV MODIFICATION IS LESS LKLY. BRANICK/CRISP PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 100 100 SEVERE 100 100 TORNADOES 70 60 TARGETABLE STORM 80 70 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 22040 21048 SUPERCELL 25028 24535 FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1400L 1300L 1ST SEVERE RPT 1445L 1400L 1ST TORNADO 1530L 1430L