VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT WED MAY 3 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: DEPARTURE AT NOON CDT TARGET AREA: NORTH TEXAS E OF A LINE FROM CDS-ABI SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: ARCHIVE II FOR KLBB...KFDR...KDYS...KFWS...KOUN DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: WEAKENING MCS NOW OVER E TX AND MOVG E AWAY FROM THE AREA. COOL AMS IN ITS WAKE COVERS MUCH OF NE TX AS OF 15Z. SFC LOW IS ACRS THE SE TX PNHDL WITH TRAILING DRYLN TO BTWN LBB-ABI. WRMFNT LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LOW PRES SE INTO CNTRL TX. AMS IN THE WARM AND MOIST WEDGE E OF DRYLN ALREADY IS BCMG UNSTBL WITH 15Z SFC BASED CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG INVOF ABI. STLT LOOP SHOWS CI NOT LKLY TO BE A PROBLEM WITH GOOD PTNL FOR INSOLATION ACRS ALL OF NRN TX. AMS W OF DRYLN IS ALREADY SHOWING RAPID WARMING WITH 14Z-15Z TEMP RISES OF 10-15 DEG FROM W OF LBB SWD TO SE NM. UPPER PATTERN WILL BE FVRBL FOR CNVTN WITH SHRTWV TROF IN ERN NM AND MID LVL TEMPS IN THE -13 TO -16 RANGE. LATEST ETA INITIALIZED WELL ON JET STREAM AND CONTS TO SHOW BAND OF STG FLOW ACRS THE RED RIVER BY LATE WED AFTN. NGM NOW AGREEING WITH PAST SVRL ETA RUNS IN MAINTAINING SFC LOW PRES S OF CDS BY 04/00Z AND BLV THIS WILL BE A GOOD FCST. MAIN CONCERN IS HOW MUCH NWD TRANSPORT OF REASONABLY DEEP LOW LVL MSTR WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN...AND DEGREE OF LOW LVL CNVGNC WHICH WILL DVLP NEAR THE WRMFNT ALG THE RED RIVER AND ALG THE DRYLN JUST S OF THE SFC LOW. 12Z SNDGS AT MAF/AMA SUG WLY FLOW SHOULD PICK UP IN THE DRY AIR THIS AFTN WHICH WOULD AID IN PTNL DRYLN CNVGNC. PLANNED 18Z MOBILE SNDG SW OF SPS SHOULD GIUE INSIGHT AS TO LOW LVL MSTR PTNL FOR LATE AFTN. SUSPECT INITIATION SOMEWHERE JUST SW OF SPS WITH CNVTN FAIRLY ISOLD INITIALLY. CONCUR WITH LATEST SELS DAY 1 OTLK ON PTNL FOR DVLPMNT EWD ALG E/W BNDRY INTO AN MCS AS CNVTN MOVES INTO INCRG LLJ AND DEEPER MSTR. LOOKING AHEAD...THU DOES NOT APPEAR TOO PROMISING AT THIS TIME AS LOW LVL FLOW WEAKENS ACRS THE OPS AREA COURTESY OF WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BENEATH MID LVL CONFLUENT FLOW. WITH CONTD RISING HGTS INTO FRI WE SHOULD SEE A MAJOR CAP ACRS MUCH OF THE OPS AREA FRI AS DEEP TROF DVLPS IN THE SW. IF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE MRF IS A GOOD FCST... FRI COULD BE ACTIVE BACK IN THE TX PNHDL OR NERN NM WHERE CAP WOULD BE WEAKEST AND STG LOW LVL RETURN FLOW WOULD BE IN PLACE. TIME WILL TELL. BAKER/KERR PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 95 20 SEVERE 80 05 TORNADOES 30 00 TARGETABLE STORM 60 05 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 250/30 ----- SUPERCELL 270/20 ----- FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1500 ----- 1ST SEVERE RPT 1700 ----- 1ST TORNADO 1800 -----