VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO OPERATIONS TARGET AREA: N/A SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: N/A DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: HEMIS STLT LOOP SHOWS JET MAX MOVING ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MRNG AND THIS IS SEEN IN H25 DATA AS A 90-100 KT SPD MAX ACRS AZ. STG CNVTN DVLPD EARLY THIS MRNG IN THE EXIT RGN OF THIS JET ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND CONTS TO MOVE E AS PER OBS OF CBS TO THE SW OF LHX ATTM. FURTHER S SOME CNVTN FORMED IN THE STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ACRS W TX AND IS MOVING E...TO BE OF NO SIGNIFICANCE TO OPS FOR TDA. OF SOME INTEREST HWVR IS THE STG SLY GRAD IN PLACE ACRS W TX AND ERN NM AHD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX. SFC LOW THIS MRNG WAS IN CNTRL CO WITH STG SLY FLOW...BEST SEEN IN THE PROFILERS AT TCU/GDA...OVER THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATE WILL CONT ACRS SE CO INTO W TX THIS AFTN. FVRBL DIR/SPD SHEAR WILL EXIST BY TIME OF MAX HEATING ACRS THE AREA FROM EXTRM SW KS SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL. LACKING IS LOW LVL MSTR. AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF 50 DEG DWPT INTO THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTN. BEST LOW LVL MSTR CNVGNC EXPCD TO BE IN THE WRN PNHDL BY 03/00Z. THIS PLUS SOME PTNL FOR HEATING THIS AFTN YIELDS A SLIM CHC AT A ROTATING TSTM EARLY THIS EVE. HWVR MUCH BETTER CHC OF DEEP CNVTN LATER THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS TO THE E AS LLJ INCRS AND CREATES FVRBL LOW LVL WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVR N TX AND OK. THIS LEADS TO COMPLICATING FACTORS FOR DAY 2 OPS. EXPC SFC LOW PRES TO TAKE SHAPE NW TX S OF CDS AS PER ETA FCST VALID 03/18Z. SHRTWV WHICH CROSSES THE MTNS TNGT PROGD ACRS KS WED WITH EVENTUAL DVLPMNT OF A SFC REFLECTION ACRS MO WED NIGHT. ALF THIS RESULTS IN A BAND OF STG MID LVL WLY FLO ACRS N TX WED AFTN S OF THE MAIN SHRTWV. RESULTANT SHEAR PROFILE BY 04/00Z QUITE FVRBL ACRS N TX E OF THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING DRLN...NEAR THE WRMFNT WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE RED RIVER. GIVEN BRO SNDG THIS MRNG THE 36 HR FCST SNDGS ACRS N TX LOOK A LTL SHALLOW ON THE MSTR. ETA COMPOSITE PARAMETERS VALID 04/00Z MAKE THE AREA FROM SPS TO MWL AND EWD LOOK FVRBL FOR SVR. HWVR AGREE WITH EARLY MRNG SELS DAY 2 OTLK THAT CAPPING MAY BE A PROBLEM. SOME NWD TRANSPORT OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM NRN MEX WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS MID LVL TROF APCHS THE AREA ON WED. SUSPECT H7 TEMPS A CPL DEGS HIGHER THAN FCST BY 04/00Z ACRS N TX. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DAY 2 LOOKS FVRBL ATTM FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS ACRS N TX LATE WED AFTN/WED EVE...WITH BEST CHC FOR INITIATION NEAR THE SFC LOW AND JUST S ALG DRYLN. ANOTHER CHC FOR INITIATION COULD BE AN OUTFLOW BNDRY SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA IF AN MCS DVLPS TNGT OR EARLY WED MRNG. BAKER/KERR PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 70 95 SEVERE 20 80 TORNADOES 05 30 TARGETABLE STORM 05 60 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL ----- 250/35 SUPERCELL ----- 270/25 FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING ----- 1500 1ST SEVERE RPT ----- 1700 1ST TORNADO ----- 1800