VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  NO OPERATIONS
TARGET AREA:  N/A
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  N/A

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

HEMIS STLT LOOP SHOWS JET MAX MOVING ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES
THIS MRNG AND THIS IS SEEN IN H25 DATA AS A 90-100 KT SPD
MAX ACRS AZ.  STG CNVTN DVLPD EARLY THIS MRNG IN THE EXIT
RGN OF THIS JET ACRS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...AND CONTS TO
MOVE E AS PER OBS OF CBS TO THE SW OF LHX ATTM.  FURTHER
S SOME CNVTN FORMED IN THE STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ACRS
W TX AND IS MOVING E...TO BE OF NO SIGNIFICANCE TO OPS FOR
TDA.  OF SOME INTEREST HWVR IS THE STG SLY GRAD IN PLACE
ACRS W TX AND ERN NM AHD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MAX.
SFC LOW THIS MRNG WAS IN CNTRL CO WITH STG SLY FLOW...BEST
SEEN IN THE PROFILERS AT TCU/GDA...OVER THE WRN HIGH
PLAINS.  STEEP LAPSE RATE WILL CONT ACRS SE CO INTO W TX
THIS AFTN.  FVRBL DIR/SPD SHEAR WILL EXIST BY TIME OF MAX
HEATING ACRS THE AREA FROM EXTRM SW KS SWD INTO THE TX
PNHDL.  LACKING IS LOW LVL MSTR.  AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF
50 DEG DWPT INTO THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTN.  BEST LOW
LVL MSTR CNVGNC EXPCD TO BE IN THE WRN PNHDL BY 03/00Z.
THIS PLUS SOME PTNL FOR HEATING THIS AFTN YIELDS A SLIM
CHC AT A ROTATING TSTM EARLY THIS EVE.  HWVR MUCH BETTER
CHC OF DEEP CNVTN LATER THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS
TO THE E AS LLJ INCRS AND CREATES FVRBL LOW LVL WAA AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVR N TX AND OK.

THIS LEADS TO COMPLICATING FACTORS FOR DAY 2 OPS.  EXPC
SFC LOW PRES TO TAKE SHAPE NW TX S OF CDS AS PER ETA FCST
VALID 03/18Z.  SHRTWV WHICH CROSSES THE MTNS TNGT PROGD
ACRS KS WED WITH EVENTUAL DVLPMNT OF A SFC REFLECTION ACRS
MO WED NIGHT.  ALF THIS RESULTS IN A BAND OF STG MID LVL
WLY FLO ACRS N TX WED AFTN S OF THE MAIN SHRTWV.  RESULTANT
SHEAR PROFILE BY 04/00Z QUITE FVRBL ACRS N TX E OF THE
SFC LOW AND TRAILING DRLN...NEAR THE WRMFNT WHICH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE RED RIVER.  GIVEN BRO SNDG THIS MRNG
THE 36 HR FCST SNDGS ACRS N TX LOOK A LTL SHALLOW ON THE
MSTR.  ETA COMPOSITE PARAMETERS VALID 04/00Z MAKE THE AREA
FROM SPS TO MWL AND EWD LOOK FVRBL FOR SVR.  HWVR AGREE
WITH EARLY MRNG SELS DAY 2 OTLK THAT CAPPING MAY BE A
PROBLEM.  SOME NWD TRANSPORT OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM
NRN MEX WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS MID LVL TROF APCHS THE AREA
ON WED.  SUSPECT H7 TEMPS A CPL DEGS HIGHER THAN FCST BY
04/00Z ACRS N TX.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DAY 2 LOOKS FVRBL ATTM FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS ACRS N TX LATE WED AFTN/WED EVE...WITH BEST
CHC FOR INITIATION NEAR THE SFC LOW AND JUST S ALG DRYLN.
ANOTHER CHC FOR INITIATION COULD BE AN OUTFLOW BNDRY 
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA IF AN MCS DVLPS TNGT OR EARLY WED
MRNG.

BAKER/KERR 

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   70      95
SEVERE                      20      80
TORNADOES                   05      30
TARGETABLE STORM            05      60

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             -----   250/35
SUPERCELL                 -----   270/25

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 -----   1500 
1ST SEVERE RPT            -----   1700
1ST TORNADO               -----   1800