VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT MAY 31 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: NO GO TARGET AREA: NONE SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE. DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: ATTN FOCUSED ON CNTRL/NCNTRL TX WHERE FVBL SHEAR AND INSTBY FCST TO COME TOGETHER THIS AFTN/ EVE, BUT CRNT CONVCTN AND WK LL FEATURES MAKE IT TUFF TO FOCUS ON A TARGET AREA WTH CONFIDENCE. SFC ANAL INDCS WK E-W FNTL ZN ACRS NRN TX WITH WKLY-DEFINED DRYLN HANGING BACK WELL INTO W TX AND ERN NM. CRNT CONVCTN NWRN TX EXPCD TO ROLL ESEWD AND REINFORCE E-W FNT. MUCH OF CNTRL TX S OF FNT EXPCD TO DESTABILIZE DURG DAY WITH DIURNAL HTG, YIELDING LIS OF -6 TO -10 AND CAPES 2500-3000. FVBL SHEAR AND FORCING WL COME FM WELL-DEFINED NWLY UPR SPEED MAX PROGGED TO NR SERN CRNR NM BY 00Z. DVRG ALF ASSOCD WTH LEFT EXIT RGN OF JET WL BE OVR CNTRL TX, WHILE JET PROVIDES FVBL SPEED/DIR SHEAR AT MID LVLS. CRNT ACTVTY MAY TEND TO WKN THRU MIDDAY AS CAP DVLPS IN RESPONSE TO SUBSDNC BHD DEPARTING SHTWV, BUT 2ND IMPL PROGGED SEWD INTO W TX THIS EVE EXPCD TO REDVLP CONVCTN W OF CRNT ACTVTY, WHICH THEN WUD ROLL SEWD NR SFC FNT. WK LLJ ALSO PROGGED NWD INTO THIS AREA. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN LOCN/STRENGTH OF LL FEATURES THIS AFTN, AREA OF HIER POTL IS BROAD, EXTDG FM CNTRL/SRN OK - WHERE RUC FCSTS BNDRY TO LIFT NEWD THIS EVE - SWWD TO VCNTY SJT WHERE UPR JET AXIS IS PROGGED TO INTRSECT INSTBY AXIS. HIER TORNADO POTL APRS TO BE OVR SRN PART OF THIS AREA WHERE SHEAR IS BETTER, WITH MAX NR ABI-MWL AREAS ATTM, BUT GREATEST POTL MAY SHIFT SWD AND THUS OUT OF VORTEX AREA SHUD CRNT ACTVTY TURN MORE SEWD. DAY 2 HAS SOME POTL OVR NERN TX/SERN OK WHERE AMS FCST TO RMN QUITE UNSTBL AHD OF CDFNT/DRYLN. NEG FACTOR IS LACK OF UPR SUPPORT AS TROF AXIS MOVS INTO AR/LA BY EVE AND LEAVES TX/OK IN SUBSDNC. HOWVR, FVBL SHEAR AND INSTBY IN MOIST AXIS PROGGED AHD OF FNT SUGGESTS THU MAY BE A SLEEPER IF LL CONVGC CAN OVERCOME SUBSDNC AND CAP CAN BE BROKEN. BRANICK/VESCIO PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 100 100 SEVERE 90 60 TORNADOES 60 40 TARGETABLE STORM 70 50 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 28024 29028 SUPERCELL 32017 33020 FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1130 1300 1ST SEVERE RPT 1200 1345 1ST TORNADO 1400 1500