VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT MAY 27 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO TARGET AREA: SE KS, NE OK SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: OUN, TOP, DDC: 18Z & 21Z SNDGS. OMA, LIT, SGF: 18Z SNDGS. ARCHIVE II RQSTD FM KTLX, KINX, KICT, KTOP, KFWD. DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: SFC LOW EXPCD TO DEEPEN AND MOV NEWD INTO SERN NEB WTH CDFNT SWD INTO CNTRL OK/NCNTRL TX BY 00Z. DRYLN EXPCD TO PUNCH EWD AHD OF FNT INTO SERN KS/ERN OK WTH TRPL PT SOMEWHERE IN SERN KS. UPR JET EXPCD TO PUNCH NEWD ACRS NWRN OK, SERN KS WTH SPD MAX OVR AMA AT 12Z EXPCD TO MOV INTO ERN KS. FVBL PSN OF FCST THERMAL AXIS NR ICT-OKC AND MOIST AXIS MKC-JLN-PRX BY 00Z INDCS DECENT CONVCTV POTL AHD OF DRYLN/CDFNT. ALTHO HIEST CAPES ARE FCST OVR SERN OK/NERN TX, LOWEST LI PROGGED NR SERN KS INDCG RELATIVELY SHLW UNSTBL LYR THAT AREA. INSTBY AXIS SHUD LIFT NWD TWD SERN NEB THIS EVE. ATTM WE EXPC CONVCTV INIT NR TRPL PT AND UPR JET VCNTY ERN/SERN KS, WTH ACTVTY MOVG NEWD TWD NERN KS/NWRN MO/SERN NEB. ACTVTY ALSO EXPCD TO DVLP SWD ALG/AHD OF DRYLN INTO ERN OK AND PERHAPS NERN TX. CONCERN FOR TOR POTL FM KS NWD IS BACKING OF UPR FLOW AND RESULTANT DECR IN DIR SHEAR. THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY BACKING OF LL FLOW N OF WMFNT, BUT THAT WUD BE IN SERN NEB/SWRN IA. FRTHR S, SFC WNDS ALREADY VEERING ACRS WRN/NRN OK, BUT UPR FLOW WL RMN MORE WLY ACRS ERN OK/NERN TX. THUS A SECOND AREA OF HIER POTL IS NOTED ACRS ERN OK/NERN TX BTWN KS JET AND 200MB SUBTRPCL JET PROGGED ACRS SRN/ERN TX. PROGGED 500MB SPEED MAX ACRS OK THIS AFTN INDCS BETTER LOW/MID LVL SHEAR ALSO MAY SHFT SWD INTO NERN OR E CNTRL OK, PERHAPS SWD INTO SERN OK AND NERN TX. WITH HIER CAPES FCST IN THIS AREA, POTL FOR SUPERCELL DVLPMT POTL IS BEING KEPT IN MIND. THUS , PLANS ARE FOR ARMADA TO POSN INITIALLY NR KS/OK BRDR N OF BVO WHERE THEY CAN MOV N OR DROP S AS NEEDED. CRNT AND FCST CAP STRENGTH SUGGESTS A FAIRLY EARLY SHOW, AT LEAST AS FAR AS INITIATION. DAY2 LKLY TO BE A DOWN DAY AS CENTER OF ACTION SHIFTS TO MS/ OH VLYS, BUT NEED TO WATCH FOR DRYLN/CDFNT TRAILING SWWD INTO NERN TX AND SERN PTNS OF VORTEX AREA WHERE AMS WL RMN VERY UNSTBL. ATTM, SHEAR EXPCD TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGNZD TORNADO/SUPERCELL POTL. BRANICK/CRISP PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 98 80 SEVERE 90 50 TORNADOES 60 10 TARGETABLE STORM 70 10 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 24038 24525 SUPERCELL 26528 28518 FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1300 1200 1ST SEVERE RPT 1345 1315 1ST TORNADO 1445 1500