VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT MON 22 MAY 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: TARGET AREA: NRN PTNS TX PNHDL SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WL CONT...WITH ONE BRANCH OF FLOW CONTG ACRS THE NRN PLNS...AND SRN BRANCH CONTG ARND BASE OF CA/NV UPR LO EWD ACRS SRN AZ/NM INTO W TX. UPR FLOW OVR THE SRN HI PLNS HAS BEEN WELL FCST BY RECENT RUNS OF THE ETA. THE MODEL FCSTS INCRG UPR FLOW OVR THE RGN TDA...WITH FCST 700MB SPDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS AND 250MB WNDS IN EXCESS OF 60KTS XPCD BY LT IN THE DAY. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CONTD EWD PROGRESSION OF CA/NV LO. AT THE SFC...CDFNT NOW NOSING SWD THRU ERN CO...ASSOCD WITH NRN STREAM SHRTWV...XPCD TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT CONTS SSE ACRS XTRM SE CO/WRN KS ERY THIS AFTN. FARTHER S AND E...A CNVTV OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDS FM SE KS...W AND NWWD INTO NW KS. A WKR BNDRY EXTENDS FM S OF GAG ACRS CNTRL PTNS OF THE OK PNHDL INTO XTRM SE CO. SCTD ELEVATED CNVTN IS IN PROGRESS ABV THE BNDRY SFC IN NW OK. IN ADDITION... WHAT APPEAR TO BE GRAVITY WV CLDS ARE PROPAGATING SWWD BEYOND THE BNDRY ACRS NRN PTNS OF THE TX PHDNL. SFC DWPTS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S AS FAR N AS MAF/ABI ...AND SHUD CONT TO INCRS ACRS THE SRN HI PLNS LTR TDA AS LO-LVL SLY JET STRENGTHENS TO ABT 25KTS...PER 12Z ETA. STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT OVR RGN...WITH 700-500 TEMP DIFFS IN EXCESS OF 22 DEGS...AND 17Z SOUNDING AT SHAMROCK TX (ERN PNHDL) SHOWS MINUS 13C AT 500MB. CAPPING XPCD TO PROHIBIT SFC-BASED CNVTV DVLPMT TIL ABT 20-21Z INVOF DRYLN AND/OR BNDRY INTERSECTIONS OVR THE SRN HI PLNS TDA. ONCE CNVTV TEMPS ARE REACHED...PROBABLY WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S...FCST CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 3500- 4000J/KG XPCD TO SUPPORT FAIRLY EXPLOSIVE DVLPMT...ESPLY FM THE NRN TX PNHDL INTO SW KS...WHERE DRYLN PUNCH SHUD BE GREATEST. STLT DATA SHOWS LTL IN THE WAY OF MID/HI CLDS TO INTERFERE WITH STG SFC HTG OIVR TARGET AREA. INCRG UPR FLOW AND HI CAPE VALUES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF CLASSIC SUPERCELL DVLPMT LTR THIS AFTN...WITH ACTVTY TENDING TWD THE HP TYPE LTR THIS EVENING AS CNVTN EVOLVES INTO AN MCS AND MOVES ESE ACRS SRN KS/NRN OK LTR TNGT. CONDS SHUD ALSO BE FVRBL FOR VORTEX OPERATIONS ON TUESDAY ...WITH PARTS OF NW TX/SW OK APPEARING TO BE THE MOST LKLY RGN FOR ISOLD SUPERCELL DVLPMT ATTM. CORFIDI/THOMPSON PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 100 98 SEVERE 95 80 TORNADOES 80 60 TARGETABLE STORM 80 60 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 23020 21025 SUPERCELL 27015 25018 FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1600 1400 1ST SEVERE RPT 1630 1500 1ST TORNADO 1645 1530