VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT MON 22 MAY 1995

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:
TARGET AREA: NRN PTNS TX PNHDL 
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WL CONT...WITH ONE BRANCH OF FLOW CONTG
ACRS THE NRN PLNS...AND SRN BRANCH CONTG ARND BASE OF CA/NV
UPR LO EWD ACRS SRN AZ/NM INTO W TX.  UPR FLOW OVR THE SRN
HI PLNS HAS BEEN WELL FCST BY RECENT RUNS OF THE ETA.  THE 
MODEL FCSTS INCRG UPR FLOW OVR THE RGN TDA...WITH FCST 700MB
SPDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS AND 250MB WNDS IN EXCESS OF 60KTS
XPCD BY LT IN THE DAY.  THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN CONTD
EWD PROGRESSION OF CA/NV LO.

AT THE SFC...CDFNT NOW NOSING SWD THRU ERN CO...ASSOCD WITH
NRN STREAM SHRTWV...XPCD TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT 
CONTS SSE ACRS XTRM SE CO/WRN KS ERY THIS AFTN.  FARTHER S
AND E...A CNVTV OUTFLOW BNDRY EXTENDS FM SE KS...W AND NWWD
INTO NW KS.  A WKR BNDRY EXTENDS FM S OF GAG ACRS CNTRL
PTNS OF THE OK PNHDL INTO XTRM SE CO.  SCTD ELEVATED CNVTN
IS IN PROGRESS ABV THE BNDRY SFC IN NW OK.  IN ADDITION...
WHAT APPEAR TO BE GRAVITY WV CLDS ARE PROPAGATING SWWD
BEYOND THE BNDRY ACRS NRN PTNS OF THE TX PHDNL.

SFC DWPTS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S AS FAR N AS MAF/ABI
...AND SHUD CONT TO INCRS ACRS THE SRN HI PLNS LTR TDA AS
LO-LVL SLY JET STRENGTHENS TO ABT 25KTS...PER 12Z ETA.
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT OVR RGN...WITH 700-500
TEMP DIFFS IN EXCESS OF 22 DEGS...AND 17Z SOUNDING AT 
SHAMROCK TX (ERN PNHDL) SHOWS MINUS 13C AT 500MB. 

CAPPING XPCD TO PROHIBIT SFC-BASED CNVTV DVLPMT TIL ABT
20-21Z INVOF DRYLN AND/OR BNDRY INTERSECTIONS OVR THE SRN
HI PLNS TDA.  ONCE CNVTV TEMPS ARE REACHED...PROBABLY WITH
SFC TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S...FCST CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 3500-
4000J/KG XPCD TO SUPPORT FAIRLY EXPLOSIVE DVLPMT...ESPLY FM
THE NRN TX PNHDL INTO SW KS...WHERE DRYLN PUNCH SHUD BE
GREATEST.  STLT DATA SHOWS LTL IN THE WAY OF MID/HI CLDS
TO INTERFERE WITH STG SFC HTG OIVR TARGET AREA.

INCRG UPR FLOW AND HI CAPE VALUES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF 
CLASSIC SUPERCELL DVLPMT LTR THIS AFTN...WITH ACTVTY TENDING
TWD THE HP TYPE LTR THIS EVENING AS CNVTN EVOLVES INTO AN 
MCS AND MOVES ESE ACRS SRN KS/NRN OK LTR TNGT. 

CONDS SHUD ALSO BE FVRBL FOR VORTEX OPERATIONS ON TUESDAY
...WITH PARTS OF NW TX/SW OK APPEARING TO BE THE MOST LKLY
RGN FOR ISOLD SUPERCELL DVLPMT ATTM.  
 
CORFIDI/THOMPSON


PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100      98
SEVERE                      95      80
TORNADOES                   80      60
TARGETABLE STORM            80      60

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             23020   21025
SUPERCELL                 27015   25018

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1600    1400 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1630    1500
1ST TORNADO               1645    1530