VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT WED MAY 17 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO TARGET AREA: CNTRL/S CNTRL OK INTO E CNTRL OK AND N CNTRL TX SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: SNDGS FM OUN/FWD /MAF. ARCHIVE II FM KTLX/KINX/KFWS DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: STG NM UPR LO...WITH ASSOCD 90KT SWLY SPD MAX OVR SW TX... XPCD TO MOVE ENE TO NR JLN BY 12Z THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...ASSOCD SFC LO NOW DVLPG OVR W CNTRL OK SHUD TRACK ENE ALG INTENSFYING STNRY FNT INTO S CNTRL MO. MRNG RAOB DATA AND UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOW CONTG PRESENCE OF WARM SECTOR CAP ALG AND E OF A LN FM E OF CSM TO NR ABI. BACK EDGE OF CAP APPEARS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...AND 20-25KT EWD MOVMT SHUD CONT THRU THE REST OF THE DAY AS NM SYS CONTS TO APCH FM THE WSW. VSBL DATA STLT IMAGERY AND LATEST SFC ANALYSES SHOW WARM SECTOR STRATUS CONTG TO DVLP AHD OF DRYLN IN SW OK... SUGGESTING THAT MSTR IN THIS RGN IS DEEP ENUF TO RESIST BEING MIXED OUT BY DAYTIME HTG...DESPITE PASSAGE OF MID-LVL DRY PUNCH RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED CNVCTN NOW OVR ERN OK. AT THE SAME TIME...CONTG PRES FALLS OVR CNTRL OK... EVEN AT DIURNAL RISE TIME (15Z)...SUGGEST THAT MODEL FCST OF SFC LO MVMT IS ON TRACK AND THAT LO-LVL FLOW WL RMN BACKED TO ARND 180 DEGS OVR CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX THRU THE MOST OF THE DAY. BACKED LO-LVL FLOW AHD OF LO...COUPLED WITH CONTG PRESENCE OF VRY FVRBL DEEP-LYR SHEAR PROFILES (SPDS IN EXCESS OF 60KTS AT 500MB)...DIFFLUENT HI-LVL FLOW AND WARM SECTOR CAPES ALRDY IN THE 2500-3000J/KG RANGE SUGGEST A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL STMS...WITH THE PSBLTY OF A FEW STG TORNADOES. SFC WND SPDS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS ATTM (16Z) ACRS W TX ALSO SUGGEST THAT LRG SCALE SYS IS INDEED CONTG EWD AND THAT CAP WL BE ELIMINATED SWD INTO N CNTRL TX LTR IN THE DAY. FARTHER E...ACTVTY IN FAR ERN OK/NE TX MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OR SQLN LTR TNGT AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DIMINISHES BUT DEEP/STG MSTR INFLOW CONTS. THREAT OF ISOLD TORNADOES WL... HWVR...CONT AS SPD SHEAR WL RMN QUITE STG. CORFIDI/THOMPSON/HOWERTON PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 100 20 SEVERE 100 10 TORNADOES 90 01 TARGETABLE STORM 80 01 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 22040 N/A SUPERCELL 25030 N/A FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1330 N/A 1ST SEVERE RPT 1400 N/A 1ST TORNADO 1415 N/A