VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: TARGET AREA: SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: SNDG AMA,DDC,OUN TOP,FSI. ARCH II: GLD,DDC,END,ICT,AMA,OUN DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: Rich lo-lvl mstr...with dwpts in the mid to upr 60s...is in place fm the srn hi plns nnewd to vcnty of retreating outflow bndry ovr cntrl KS. wk area of sfc lo pres now ovr xtrm ern co/wrn ks xpcd to strengthen and dvlp swd ltr tda and tngt in response to apch of stg upr trof now ovr the desert sw. mid- and upr-lvl wnd field ovr VORTEX rgn alrdy stgr than yda at this time...and wl lkly incrs thru tngt. eta and ruc fcst 250mb spds in excess of 75kts by 21z tda fm nw tx into the wrn half of ks appear reasonable given mrng raob data. the hi-lvl flow shud also rmn rather diffluent...with a well-defined sub-trop jet axis ovrs sw TX. raobs fm maf...ama and ddc all show presence of cap which wl inhibit dvlpmt of sfc-based cnvtn until ltr this aftn ...when temps have reached the upr 80s. aftn htg ovr w tx wl lkly be diminished by lrg area of sub-trop cirrus apchg the rgn ahd of sw u.s. trof. the same clds wl also lmt htg ery this aftn in sw ks...but the clds there are thinner ...and the back edge of the band shud pass beyond the rgn fm w to e in the nxt 2-4 hrs. capes alrdy aoa 2500j/kg s of bndry in KS...and shud rise to at least 3500j/kg with contd htg ltr tda. tstms xpcd to initiate alg and s of bndry and quickly become svr given hi capes and stg directional shear . new model guidance consistent with previous runs in fcstg some backing of lo- lvl flow ovr the rgn this aftn/ery tngt. this wud enhance supercell/tornadic potential...esply given incrg upr flow. farther s...contd lo-lvl sely flow and presence of rich mtsr shud result in isold supercell dvlpmt lt this aftn and tngt ovr the srn hi plns of w tx/xtrm ern nm. for tomorrow...kinematic support for svr tstms wl incrs ovr the srn half of the plns with incrg wnd field assocd with apchg upr trof. with wdsprd tropical mstr alrdy in place and capping inversion lkly to wkn fm n to s acrs rgn durg the day...a sqln cud be in progress by ery in the day alg leading edge of cdfnt/dryln fm wrn ok swd into nw tx. if cap wkns rapidly and sqln dvlps swd durg the day...the greatest rsk of tornadic stms wud be ovr parts of se ok and n cntrl/ne tx. Corfidi/Thompson/Howerton PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 99 99 SEVERE 80 80 TORNADOES 60 60 TARGETABLE STORM 60 40 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 23030 22535 SUPERCELL 26020 24030 FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1700 1300 1ST SEVERE RPT 1730 1400 1ST TORNADO 1800 1500