VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 1995

...CORRECTED DATE...

OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:  DEPARTED 1015 AM CDT
TARGET AREA:  CENTRAL KS
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  ARCHIVE II
   FROM 88D SITES IN KS/OK.  NWS SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDINGS
   HAVE ALREADY BEEN COORDINATED.

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

VERY STG UPR JET NOSING ACRS THE TX PNHDL ATTM. APPEARS
SLY LOW LVL FLOW BEING ENHANCED IN THE EXIT RGN ACRS WRN
TX...WRN OK...AND WRN KS. THIS LLJ IS FCST TO SPREAD TO 
THE E THIS AFTN AND EVE AND MAINTAIN SPEEDS IN THE 40-
50 KT RANGE. DEEP SFC LOW ACRS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
LEAD TO BACKED SFC WNDS ACRS OK AND KS. GIVEN SNDGS OVER
W TX EXPC DRYLN TO BULGE OUT TO THE E FROM LBB EWD AND
PUSH NE OUT OF THE TX PNHDL INTO SW KS. DRYLN MAY END UP
ARCING FROM NW TO SE ACRS SW KS THIS AFTN. EARLY MRNG MCS
OVER NE KS IS MOVG TO THE E WITH LOW CLDS IN ITS WAKE
ACRS THE INITIAL TARGET AREA. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM 
GLD TO JUST W DDC AS OF 1530Z. LOW LVL AMS S OF THE JET
WILL WARM QUITE A BIT THIS AFTN ACRS TX AND WRN OK. KEY
FOR SUCESSFUL OPS WILL BE TO GET CAPE TO INCRS UP IN
KS N OF THE JET WHERE UPR TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. GIVEN
FAIRLY STNRY POSN OF SFC LOW THIS AFTN APPEARS LOW LVL
MSTR AND THERMAL ADVTN WILL CONT ACRS KS AND PROVIDE
SUF CAPE FOR DEEP MOIST CNVTN IN AN AREA WITH VERY
FVRBL HODOGRAPHS. STMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY AND THE CREWS
WILL ATTEMPT TO POSITION E OF INITIATION SUCH THAT
SUPERCELLS WILL CROSS THEIR PATH LATER THIS AFTN. CONCUR
WITH LATEST SELS DAY 1 IN THE ENHANCED RISK TDA GIVEN 
VERY STG WINDS. ACTIVE SVR WILL LIKELY CONT OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE BEST CHC FOR VORTEX BEING INITIATION SOMEWHERE 
IN A LINE FROM NW KS TO S CNTRL KS BY MID AFTN.

DAY 2 DOES NOT LOOK FVRBL ATTM WITH DRYLN EXPCD TO BE
E OF THE REGION.

BAKER/KERR

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100      30
SEVERE                      90      10
TORNADOES                   70      05
TARGETABLE STORM            70      05

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             220/40  -----
SUPERCELL                 240/30  -----

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1530   ----- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1630   -----
1ST TORNADO               1700   -----