VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 1995 ...CORRECTED DATE... OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: DEPARTED 1015 AM CDT TARGET AREA: CENTRAL KS SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: ARCHIVE II FROM 88D SITES IN KS/OK. NWS SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN COORDINATED. DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: VERY STG UPR JET NOSING ACRS THE TX PNHDL ATTM. APPEARS SLY LOW LVL FLOW BEING ENHANCED IN THE EXIT RGN ACRS WRN TX...WRN OK...AND WRN KS. THIS LLJ IS FCST TO SPREAD TO THE E THIS AFTN AND EVE AND MAINTAIN SPEEDS IN THE 40- 50 KT RANGE. DEEP SFC LOW ACRS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO BACKED SFC WNDS ACRS OK AND KS. GIVEN SNDGS OVER W TX EXPC DRYLN TO BULGE OUT TO THE E FROM LBB EWD AND PUSH NE OUT OF THE TX PNHDL INTO SW KS. DRYLN MAY END UP ARCING FROM NW TO SE ACRS SW KS THIS AFTN. EARLY MRNG MCS OVER NE KS IS MOVG TO THE E WITH LOW CLDS IN ITS WAKE ACRS THE INITIAL TARGET AREA. SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM GLD TO JUST W DDC AS OF 1530Z. LOW LVL AMS S OF THE JET WILL WARM QUITE A BIT THIS AFTN ACRS TX AND WRN OK. KEY FOR SUCESSFUL OPS WILL BE TO GET CAPE TO INCRS UP IN KS N OF THE JET WHERE UPR TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. GIVEN FAIRLY STNRY POSN OF SFC LOW THIS AFTN APPEARS LOW LVL MSTR AND THERMAL ADVTN WILL CONT ACRS KS AND PROVIDE SUF CAPE FOR DEEP MOIST CNVTN IN AN AREA WITH VERY FVRBL HODOGRAPHS. STMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY AND THE CREWS WILL ATTEMPT TO POSITION E OF INITIATION SUCH THAT SUPERCELLS WILL CROSS THEIR PATH LATER THIS AFTN. CONCUR WITH LATEST SELS DAY 1 IN THE ENHANCED RISK TDA GIVEN VERY STG WINDS. ACTIVE SVR WILL LIKELY CONT OVERNIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHC FOR VORTEX BEING INITIATION SOMEWHERE IN A LINE FROM NW KS TO S CNTRL KS BY MID AFTN. DAY 2 DOES NOT LOOK FVRBL ATTM WITH DRYLN EXPCD TO BE E OF THE REGION. BAKER/KERR PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 100 30 SEVERE 90 10 TORNADOES 70 05 TARGETABLE STORM 70 05 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 220/40 ----- SUPERCELL 240/30 ----- FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1530 ----- 1ST SEVERE RPT 1630 ----- 1ST TORNADO 1700 -----