VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT JUNE 8 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO TARGET AREA: NW OK SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: SUPPLEMENTAL SNDGS ALL VORTEX NWS SITES. ARCHIVE II RQSTD ALL 88D SITES. DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: TEAMS ALREADY ON THE ROAD HEADING FOR TARGET AREA IN NW OK VCNTY SFC BNDRY CRNTLY MOVG SLOLY SSEWD. MRNG SNDGS AND MDL DERIVED FLDS INDC CAP WL BE WKR TDA THAN YDA. THIS CPLD WITH STGR SFC BNDRY AND BETTER LL FORCING INDCS AN EARLIER SHOW WITH DVLPMT EXPCD BY EARLY AFTN. HI CAPES INDC POTL FOR RPD INTENSIFICATION. LL FLOW EXPCD TO BACK DURG DAY SETTING UP INCREASINGLY FVBL SHEAR AS SWLY FLOW ALF INCRSS. EXPC INIT DVLPMT FM NR FNT/DRYLN TRPL PT IN EXTRM NERN TX PNHDL ENEWD ALG BNDRY TO NR GAG-WWD AREA, WITH STORMS MOVG ENEWD ALG BNDRY. IF LL FLOW BACKS, THEN PTNS OF NW/NCNTRL OK AND S CNTRL KS WL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR PSBL STG TORNADOES. DRYLN/CDFNT FCST TO PUNCH EWD INTO ERN KS/CNTRL OK BY LATE AFTN FRI WITH VRY UNSTBL AMS RMNG IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT ACRS MST OF ERN OK AND SERN KS. MDLS PROGGING POTENT COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTBY FM ERN KS INTO MO AND SRN IA, WITH EHI AS HI AS 8 OVR NRN MO. INSTBY WL PERSIST FRTHR S INTO OK/TX, BUT SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS FVBL FRTHR S AND MAY BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SQLN DVLPMT ALG EWD-MOVG FNT. FCST OF WK CAP AGAIN INDCS EARLY DVLPMT ALG BNDRY BY ARND MIDDAY. CONCERNED THAT MUCH OF KS/MO MAY BE GUNGED BY CONVCTN LATR TDY AND TNGT, THUS WE ARE SHIFTING AREA OF MAX TORNADO POTL ON DAY2 SLGTLY SWD FM ERN KS/WRN MO INTO SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO. POTL WL EXIST FOR SGFNT SVR OUTBREAK ON FRI, ESPLY IF KS/MO AREA IS NOT MODIFIED BY STORMS TNGT. BRANICK/VESCIO PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 100 100 SEVERE 100 98 TORNADOES 80 70 TARGETABLE STORM 80 80 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 22028 23038 SUPERCELL 25020 26028 FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1300 1200 1ST SEVERE RPT 1330 1245 1ST TORNADO 1415 1330