VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT JUNE 3 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO TARGET AREA: BOUNDED BY 60 W AMA CVS LBB 30 SE CDS 40 N LTS 60 W AMA. SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:NONE BY VORTEX SELS HAS REQUESTED 18Z SOUNDINGS AT DDC..AMA.. MAF..FWD..OUN. DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: DY1 SHORTWV TROF AND VORT MAX FCST TO MOV ENEWD FM SERN AZ AT 12Z TO CNTRL NM BY 00Z. THIS FEATURE LKLY TO AFFECT PTNS WRN TX BY LATE AFTN. MID AND UPR LVL JET PAT INDCS STG DIFFLUENCE OVR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF W TX. LO LVL SLY JET OF 25 TO 30 KT FCST TO EXTND FM NR SJT NNWWD INTO TX PNHDL BY 00Z. THIS SHOULD CONT TO TRANSPORT HI VALUES OF MOISTURE NWD INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS. PRIND E/W BDRY FM JUST N OF CVS TO JUST N OF RED RIVER WIL RMN NRLY STNRY TDA AND DRY LN NR TX/NM BDR LKLY TO BULGE EWD TO NR LBB BY LATE AFTN. IT APRS THAT PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DVLPMT AND PSBL STG TORNADOES WL FOCUS ON TARGET AREA..AS DESCRIBED ABOVE DURG MID TO LATE AFTN AND EVE HRS. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILLITY OF TARGETABLE STORMS IN THIS REGION THIS AFTN AND EVE. PRINMARY DVLPMT IS EXPCD ALG E/W BDRY AND POSSIBLY ALG DRY LN NR SFC LOW CNTR. CAP SHOULD LIMIT SWD EXTNT OF DVLPMT ALG DRY LN. ...JOHNS DY2 TARGET AREA: NWRN TX BNDYS FROM DY1 CONVECTION LIKELY TO PLAY MJR ROLE IN DVLPMT DY2. WK SFC LOW XPCTD TO DVLP IN NRN TX-PH WITH DRYLN EXTENDING SWD INTO SWRN TX BY 00Z. ANOTHER SHORTWV TROF IS PROGD TO MV INTO WRN TX BY 00Z WITH 30 TO 35 KT 500 MB WINDS ACRS WRN-NWRN TX/OK/CNTL KS. UPR JET STRUCTURE SHOWS 250 MB FLOW TO 70 KT ACRS WRN/NWRN TX WITH STRONGLY CYC CURVED PATTERN NWRD INTO CNTL OK. VERY HIGH THETA-E AIR IS PROGD TO POOL AHEAD OF DRYLN IN SRN KS/WRN-CNTL OK/ NWRN-WRN TX AND ERN TX-PH WHERE SFC DEWPTS TO NR 70 ARE XPCTD. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PROGD ACRS RGN WITH 500-700 DELTA-T TO 20 AND RESULTANT CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DVLP IN KS/OK EARLY IN REGION OF STRONGEST MID LVL UVV AND UPR DVRG. DVLPMT OVR NW/W TX WILL BE DELAYED AS SYNOPTIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. FOCUS FOR PNTL SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL BE IN NW TX WHERE DEEP LYR WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW BNDYS FOCUS INITIATION. RUC/ETA FCST SNDGS SHOW GOOD SHEAR PROFILE OVER NWRN TX WITH FLOW BCMG UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER OK/KS AS UPPER FLOW BACKS WTH HGT. ...JANISH DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 100 98 SEVERE 100 90 TORNADOES 70 40 TARGETABLE STORM 98 70 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 210/25 210/25 SUPERCELL 240/20 240/20 FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1300 1400 1ST SEVERE RPT 1400 1500 1ST TORNADO 1500 1545