VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT JUNE 3 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: GO
TARGET AREA:  BOUNDED BY 60 W AMA CVS LBB 30 SE CDS 40 N LTS
              60 W AMA.
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:NONE BY VORTEX
  	      SELS HAS REQUESTED 18Z SOUNDINGS AT DDC..AMA..
              MAF..FWD..OUN.    

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

DY1
SHORTWV TROF AND VORT MAX FCST TO MOV ENEWD FM SERN AZ AT
12Z TO CNTRL NM BY 00Z.  THIS FEATURE LKLY TO AFFECT PTNS
WRN TX BY LATE AFTN.  MID AND UPR LVL JET PAT INDCS STG
DIFFLUENCE OVR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF W TX.  LO LVL SLY JET 
OF 25 TO 30 KT FCST TO EXTND FM NR SJT NNWWD INTO TX PNHDL
BY 00Z.  THIS SHOULD CONT TO TRANSPORT HI VALUES OF MOISTURE
NWD INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS.  PRIND E/W BDRY FM JUST N OF CVS
TO JUST N OF RED RIVER WIL RMN NRLY STNRY TDA AND DRY LN
NR TX/NM BDR LKLY TO BULGE EWD TO NR LBB BY LATE AFTN.
IT APRS THAT PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DVLPMT AND
PSBL STG TORNADOES WL FOCUS ON TARGET AREA..AS DESCRIBED 
ABOVE DURG MID TO LATE AFTN AND EVE HRS. THERE IS A HIGH
PROBABILLITY OF TARGETABLE STORMS IN THIS REGION THIS AFTN
AND EVE.  PRINMARY DVLPMT IS EXPCD ALG E/W BDRY AND POSSIBLY
ALG DRY LN NR SFC LOW CNTR.  CAP SHOULD LIMIT SWD EXTNT OF
DVLPMT ALG DRY LN.

...JOHNS


DY2
TARGET AREA: NWRN TX

BNDYS FROM DY1 CONVECTION LIKELY TO PLAY MJR ROLE IN DVLPMT
DY2.  WK SFC LOW XPCTD TO DVLP IN NRN TX-PH WITH DRYLN 
EXTENDING SWD INTO SWRN TX BY 00Z.  ANOTHER SHORTWV TROF
IS PROGD TO MV INTO WRN TX BY 00Z WITH 30 TO 35 KT 500 MB 
WINDS ACRS WRN-NWRN TX/OK/CNTL KS.  UPR JET STRUCTURE 
SHOWS 250 MB FLOW TO 70 KT ACRS WRN/NWRN TX WITH STRONGLY
CYC CURVED PATTERN NWRD INTO CNTL OK.  VERY HIGH THETA-E AIR
IS PROGD TO POOL AHEAD OF DRYLN IN SRN KS/WRN-CNTL OK/
NWRN-WRN TX AND ERN TX-PH WHERE SFC DEWPTS TO NR 70 ARE 
XPCTD.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE PROGD ACRS RGN WITH 
500-700 DELTA-T TO 20 AND RESULTANT CAPE OF 2000-3000 
J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DVLP IN KS/OK
EARLY IN REGION OF STRONGEST MID LVL UVV AND UPR DVRG.
DVLPMT OVR NW/W TX WILL BE DELAYED AS SYNOPTIC LIFT
IS FORECAST TO BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER.  FOCUS FOR PNTL 
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL BE IN NW TX WHERE DEEP LYR
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW BNDYS FOCUS 
INITIATION.  RUC/ETA FCST SNDGS SHOW GOOD SHEAR PROFILE
OVER NWRN TX WITH FLOW BCMG UNIDIRECTIONAL OVER OK/KS AS
UPPER FLOW BACKS WTH HGT.  

...JANISH

                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                  100      98
SEVERE                     100      90
TORNADOES                   70      40
TARGETABLE STORM            98      70

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             210/25  210/25
SUPERCELL                 240/20  240/20

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                  1300    1400
1ST SEVERE RPT             1400    1500
1ST TORNADO                1500    1545