VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT JUNE 2 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: TARGET AREA: SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: SFC DEW POINTS IN MID TO UPR 60S F NAVE RETURNED NNWWD INTO WRN TX AND EXTRM SERN NM. SFC BASED LI VALUES HV ALREADY REACHED -8 TO -9 FM AMA AREA SWD INTO SERN NM AND MAF AREA. STG CONVECTION WHICH INITIATED IN 700 MB WARM ADVCTN ZONE APRS TO HAVE BCM SFC BASED AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED NE OF AMA. THIS CONVECTION EXTNDS NNW-SSE FM NE OF AMA TO S OF CDS AND IS EXPCD TO CONT STRENTHENING AS DIRUNAL HEATING CONTS. CELLS SHOULD MOV ONLY SLOWLY EWD. SOME CHC THESE CELLS COULD BECOME TARGETABLE IF MID LVL WINDS INCR. MID LVL WINDS WK AT MOMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCR... PARTICULARLY AFTR 00Z. PRIND NEW STG TSTM DVLPMT WL OCCUR NR W EDGE OF MOIST AXIS OVR ERN NM THIS AFTN AND PSBLY ALSO FORM EWD ALG SFC BDRY INTO NWRN TX BETWEEN LBB AND AMA. THIS NEW ACTVTY EXPCD TO OCCUR IN AREA OF INCRG LO AND MID LVL WINDS WITH HIGH PROBABILITY OF TARGETABLE STORMS ...PARTICULARLY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. CELLS EXPCD TO MOV EWD ABOUT 10 TO 20 KT. ...JOHNS IT APPEARS THAT THE THREAT FOR TOR WL CONT ACRS THE WRN PTN OF THE SRN PLAINS ON SAT AS AN UPR TROF MOVES SLOLY ENEWD ACRS THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DRYLN IS FCST TO BE NRLY STNRY THRU THE PD FM SE CO SWD ALG THE TX/NM BDR. MODELS SUGG THAT TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING SAT MORNING ACRS THE TX/OK PNHDLS. THIS ACTVTY WL LKLY LIFT NEWD INTO KS DURG THE DAY... PERHAPS LEAVING A MESOSCALE BNDRY ACRS THE REGION. BY MID AFTN XPC CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVR THE TX PNHDL/ PTNS OF NW TX. FCST WIND FIELDS EXHIBT SUFFICIENT VERT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLD TORNADOES. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE LACK OF UPR SUPPORT AS MAIN SHRTWV ENERGY ROTATES NNE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AND OUT OF OPS AREA. NONETHELESS... THERE SHUD BE SUFFICENT LOW LEVEL FORCING FM THE DRYLN AND MESOSCALE BNDRYS FOR CNVTV INITIATION SAT AFTN. ATTM...THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SVR CNVTN IS XPCD TO BE OVR THE TX/OK PNHDLS. ...VESCIO PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 100 100 SEVERE 098 098 TORNADOES 060 060 TARGETABLE STORM 095 090 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 26020 22025 SUPERCELL 28010 25018 FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1130 1400 1ST SEVERE RPT 1130 1530 1ST TORNADO 1530 1630