VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT APRIL 30 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1130 CDT: GO TARGET AREA: CDS and vicinty to stage. TX panhandle SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: Special 18Z and 21Z soundings at all VORTEX sites. Level II Archive at AMA, KTLX, FWD, KFDR, LBB DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: Am in basic agreement with SELS 1500Z AC for day1, again. The situation looks quite interesting, with backed winds in the cool air on the north side of the boundary so hodographs look really favorable. With the erosion of the stratus and heating to the west, plus moisture enhancement with progged cyclogenesis, should be able to develop significant CAPE by afternoon somewhere in the TX panhandle. Looks like the ETA has the best overall handle compared to obs. Cirrus in NM may be a problem, but attm it appears that eastern NM and western panhandle with stay clear and warm up. With streng- thening upper flow, supercells may step out of the all-too familiar HP mode today. Situation also looks interesting in North TX again, but progs suggest the show will be too late in the day for VORTEX ops. Models in agreement that developing cyclone will swing a boundary well south and east of ops area for tomorrow, so it looks like a down day attm. MRF suggests Tuesday will be a possibility and again on Thursday ... west ... and Friday in the center of the ops area. Pattern seems to stay favor- able for continuing series of ops days. Doswell/Crisp PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 98 20 SEVERE 90 10 TORNADOES 60 05 TARGETABLE STORM 80 05 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 280/30 -N/A- SUPERCELL 330/18 -N/A- FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1700 -N/A- 1ST SEVERE RPT 1735 -N/A- 1ST TORNADO 1800 -N/A-