VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1130 AM CDT APRIL 30 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1130 CDT:  GO
TARGET AREA: CDS and vicinty to stage.  TX panhandle 
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  Special 18Z and
21Z soundings at all VORTEX sites.  Level II Archive at AMA,
KTLX, FWD, KFDR, LBB  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Am in basic agreement with SELS 1500Z AC for day1, again.
The situation looks quite interesting, with backed winds in
the cool air on the north side of the boundary so hodographs
look really favorable.  With the erosion of the stratus and
heating to the west, plus moisture enhancement with progged
cyclogenesis, should be able to develop significant CAPE by
afternoon somewhere in the TX panhandle.  Looks like the ETA
has the best overall handle compared to obs.  Cirrus in NM
may be a problem, but attm it appears that eastern NM and
western panhandle with stay clear and warm up.  With streng-
thening upper flow, supercells may step out of the all-too 
familiar HP mode today.  Situation also looks interesting in
North TX again, but progs suggest the show will be too late
in the day for VORTEX ops.

Models in agreement that developing cyclone will swing a 
boundary well south and east of ops area for tomorrow, so it
looks like a down day attm.  MRF suggests Tuesday will be a
possibility and again on Thursday ... west ... and Friday 
in the center of the ops area.  Pattern seems to stay favor-
able for continuing series of ops days.

	Doswell/Crisp

PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   98      20
SEVERE                      90      10
TORNADOES                   60      05
TARGETABLE STORM            80      05

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             280/30   -N/A-
SUPERCELL                 330/18   -N/A-
FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1700    -N/A- 
1ST SEVERE RPT            1735    -N/A-
1ST TORNADO               1800    -N/A-