VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1145 AM CDT APRIL 26 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT: TARGET AREA: ardmore SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: conds appear to be coming together for a late aftn/eve round of stg-svr tstms acrs ern ok and extrm ne tx. mstr and instbly are incrsg rpdly acrs n tx and srn ok this mrng...with a substantial cap acrs n tx. meanwhile, a compact, but stg, upr lvl disturbance has reached its zenith in intensity this mrng in the se co area - it wl lift newd and weaken slowly the remainder of the day. the upr system wl force a sfc low (in srn ks at 16z) quickly to the ne into nrn mo. a second/weaker sfc low wl form in n tx nr a weak triple point as the fnt overtakes the dry line this aftn. the weak low should help keep winds from veering in se ok and ne tx, allowing for a favorable wind profile with south winds at the sfc and wly flow aloft. tstms wl form in ok late (abt 1700-1800 cdt), with cap limiting swd tstm formation in tx. solid ln of cb's in ne ok wl bcm broken in srn ok...with 1or 2 cells psbl in the prx/bonham areas of n tx. with 2500-3000 joules of cape nr red rvr and srh nr 200-250, a few supercells are likely...isold tornadoes are psbl. if mid-lvl cooling comes with fropa in n tx after dark, further tstm formation wl result, but slightly veered winds ahead of fnt should diminish supercell threat. PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 99 50 SEVERE 90 20 TORNADOES 30 01 TARGETABLE STORM 70 01 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL 2635 2925 SUPERCELL 2825 na FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING 1700 1500 1ST SEVERE RPT 1800 1700 1ST TORNADO 1830 na