VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY
1145 AM CDT APRIL 26 1995


OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1100 CDT:
TARGET AREA: ardmore 
SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS:  

DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION:
conds appear to be coming together for a late aftn/eve
round of stg-svr tstms acrs ern ok and extrm ne tx.

mstr and instbly are incrsg rpdly acrs n tx and srn ok this
mrng...with a substantial cap acrs n tx.  meanwhile, a 
compact, but stg, upr lvl disturbance has reached its zenith 
in intensity this mrng in the se co area - it wl lift newd 
and weaken slowly the remainder of the day.  the
upr system wl force a sfc low (in srn ks at 16z) quickly to
the ne into nrn mo. a second/weaker sfc low wl form in
n tx nr a weak triple point as the fnt overtakes the dry
line this aftn.

the weak low should help keep winds from veering in se ok 
and ne tx, allowing for a favorable wind profile with south
winds at the sfc and wly flow aloft.  tstms wl form in ok
late (abt 1700-1800 cdt), with cap limiting swd tstm 
formation in tx.  solid ln of cb's in ne ok wl bcm broken
in srn ok...with 1or 2 cells psbl in the prx/bonham areas
of n tx.  with 2500-3000 joules of cape nr red rvr and
srh nr 200-250, a few supercells are likely...isold 
tornadoes are psbl.  if mid-lvl cooling comes with fropa
in n tx after dark, further tstm formation wl result, but
slightly veered winds ahead of fnt should diminish 
supercell threat.    


PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) 
AND 12-04Z (DAY2)...
                           DAY1    DAY2
LIGHTNING                   99      50 
SEVERE                      90      20
TORNADOES                   30      01
TARGETABLE STORM            70      01

FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY
PRE-SUPERCELL             2635    2925 
SUPERCELL                 2825      na

FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY 
LIGHTNING                 1700    1500  
1ST SEVERE RPT            1800    1700
1ST TORNADO               1830      na