VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1015 AM CDT APRIL 23 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1015 CDT: NO GO TARGET AREA: NONE SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: Cool, stable airmass has spread over the ops area and is now (at 12Z) pushing out into the Gulf, thereby effectively shutting us down for several days. Apparently because of the widespread convection during the past 24 h, instability has decreased everywhere in the warm air and the only good lapse rates now in mid-troposphere are ahead of the short wave trough dropping southward into the northern plains. There is precious little moisture to work with so do not expect thunder with this trough, although some high-based thunder is a remote possibility over the high terrain. The only severe threat would be a microburst from a virga storm. The situation looks very comparable tomorrow, as the trough is progged to continue dropping southward and may brush the VORTEX ops area, but with its negligible moisture even thun- der is at best a remote possibility. Yesterday's MRF suggested chances for next Thurs and Fri, but last night's brings a trough dwon in the polar airstream for that time period and shows a surface ridge along the Gulf coast. It's hard to put much faith in either run at this time. Ensemble runs valid for Thursday show consider- able disagreement over timing and structure of the system progged to be affecting the VORTEX ops area, so it appears that it will be awhile before we get a handle on next week. Doswell/Crisp PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 05 05 SEVERE 02 02 TORNADOES 00 00 TARGETABLE STORM 00 00 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL -N/A- -N/A- SUPERCELL -N/A- -N/A- FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING -N/A- -N/A- 1ST SEVERE RPT -N/A- -N/A- 1ST TORNADO -N/A- -N/A-