VORTEX STATUS MESSAGE AND FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL SEVERE STORMS LABORATORY 1130 AM CDT APRIL 20 1995 OPERATIONAL STATUS AT 1130 CDT: NO GO TARGET AREA: NONE SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING/ARCHIVE II REQUESTS: NONE DAILY FORECAST DISCUSSION: The passage of the major short wave system yesterday would seem to preclude much of a chance for ops today. There is a very low probability scenario, in view of continuing mid-40s and greater dewpoints in the eastern half of OK and north- east TX. The weakening system that has moved out is no longer of significance but another secondary trough in NM at 12Z is forecast to move across the ops area today. If the residual moisture hangs in during daytime heating, there may be just enough destabilization, possibly helped along by some H500 cold advection, to produce some thunderstorms to- day. This is more or less a "cold air funnel" scenario and it appears more likely at the moment that the heating will simply cause the disappearance of the residual surface dew- points unless the ground is wet enough to keep evapotrans- pirating into the post-frontal dry air. This is not deemed a sufficient likelihood to consider operations today. The secondary system also may have thrown a monkey wrench into the chances for the next system tomorrow, as the new ETA shows little prospect for moisture return, with a low- level ridge on the Gulf coast until after 18Z tomorrow. It appears that the passage of this secondary system will push the moisture far enough away to reduce tomorrow's potential significantly. If so, progs suggest we may be out of it un- til at least mid-week next week, if MRF solution of a major system breaking under the progged ridge building to the west has any reality to it. Doswell/Crisp PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE IN VORTEX OPS AREA THRU 04Z (DAY1) AND 12-04Z (DAY2)... DAY1 DAY2 LIGHTNING 30 20 SEVERE 10 05 TORNADOES 05 02 TARGETABLE STORM 05 02 FCST STORM MOTION - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY PRE-SUPERCELL -N/A- -N/A- SUPERCELL -N/A- -N/A- FCST INITIATION TIMES (LT) - TARGETABLE STORMS ONLY LIGHTNING -N/A- -N/A- 1ST SEVERE RPT -N/A- -N/A- 1ST TORNADO -N/A- -N/A-