Caribbean Regional
Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF)
U. West Indies,
Barbados
21-23 June 2010
Meeting Report by Lisa
Goddard (IRI/Columbia University)
This meeting
represented a reinvigoration of the Caribbean RCOF, hosted by CIMH at the
University of the West Indies (organizing committee listed below), and led by
Roger Pulwarty (NOAA). There were about 45 people in attendance. Many from the
met/climate community, but also a strong presence from the Red Cross and other
regional disaster office people. Additionally, there were some folks from WMO
and from USGS (related to observational analyses).
This RCOF differed
significantly from previous ones, in this and other regions, in that there was
no forecast produced by the end of the meeting. It was much more about process,
and what information is needed/possible to aid in decision making and planning,
across timescales. The seasonal outlook for hurricanes was the major topic of
discussion as weather-within-climate. That outlook currently comes from NOAA,
and knowledgeable individuals in the region pass on the message. However, there
is interest in how the climate community could develop further information, in
collaboration with regional institutions/organizations involved in
climate/weather risk management, that might inform preparations on shorter
timescales, based on hurricane forecasts, and also how this could benefit from
appropriate readiness based on the seasonal outlooks. There was clearly need to
add information beyond "# of hurricanes expected", especially in a
year such as this (2010) that is expected to be more active than usual.
Downscaling was mentioned. Also mentioned was the need for better understanding
about sub-regional (and probabilistic) impacts associated with ENSO, and how
the local climate can modify ENSO's impact in the region. There was a lot of
discussion about coastal issues, which included storm surge risks due to
hurricanes, as well as future risks/impacts expected from sea level rise
combined with hurricanes (whether current activity, that modified by decadal
variability and/or climate change). Also included in this was the health of the
coral reefs as these are one of the stages of defense against coastal
erosion.
Participants were
encouraged to engage with the IASCLIP working groups, or at least sign up with
the Alliance to receive information. The IASCLIP community may have to be more
proactive about building the bridge to the regional researchers and decision
makers, especially working towards bringing the young scientists into the network.
There is a strong interest by the International Federation of the Red Cross/Red
Crescent (IFRC), and they will likely be engaged.
The
Caribbean RCOF Workshop Committee
Dr.
David Farrell (CIMH), Mr. Adrian Trotman (CIMH)
Mr.
Carlos Fuller (5Cs), Dr. Ken Leslie (5Cs), Dr. Neville Trotz (5Cs)
Dr.
Leonard Nurse (UWI),
Dr.
Walter Baethgen (IRI), Dr. Lisa Goddard (IRI)
Mr. Gary
Eilerts (USAID/FEWS NET), Dr. Roger Pulwarty (NOAA),
Dr.
James Verdin (USGS) Mr. James Rowland (USGS)