I) What is IASCLIP?
II)
Why is the Intra-Americas Seas (IAS) of interest?
1.
The
IAS region is coincident with a majority of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.
2.
The
IAS region and the surrounding continental regions are vulnerable to climate
variability and change.
3.
The
interannual variations of the IAS offers hope of improving climate
predictability in the boreal summer and fall season, a time of the year when
our current climate models have the least forecast skill.
4. The IAS region hosts the second largest body of warm water (>28.5°C) in the world (the first being the warm pool of water in tropical western Pacific Ocean), and is therefore of scientific interest,(Fig. 2).
5.
IAS
region is one of the most poorly observed oceans of the world (Fig. 7).
6.
Majority
of the IPCC AR4 models showed very poor warm pool simulation (SST too cold in
the IAS region), suggesting a pathological (or systemic) error in the way
couple climate models work.
III)
Why might the variability in the IAS engender climate predictability in climate
models?
1.
There
is theoretical and observational evidence that the warm pool of water in the
IAS region induces a Gill type response in the atmospheric circulation, with a
cyclone in the lower troposphere and an anticyclone in the upper troposphere (Fig. 1).
2.
Observations
indicate that there is a robust interannual variation of the area of the warm
pool (defined by the 28.5°C isotherm), which consequently modulates the SST
gradients and the heat content raising the potential for either enhancing or inhibiting
atmospheric convection (Fig. 2).
3.
Observations
indicate that the see-saw between the East Pacific Warm Pool (EPWP) and the
Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) has a bearing on the onset of the north American
monsoon, tropical cyclone activity in the two basins, and other climate
phenomena.
4.
The
variations of IAS have rather weak contemporaneous correlations with ENSO.
Therefore IAS is seen as an alternative source of seasonal atmospheric
predictability in boreal summer and fall season, when the IAS has peak
interannual variations and the direct impacts of ENSO on climate are minimal.
5.
The
size of the summer warm pool is influenced by precursor climate patterns other
than ENSO, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Amazon convection,
which enhance the potential predictability for Atlantic SST in the critical
summer season.
IV)
What are the perceived forced atmospheric variations from IAS variability?
1.
Atlantic
tropical cyclone activity (Fig. 3).
2.
Caribbean
Low Level Jet and associated moisture transports (Fig. 4).
3.
Low
level transport of water vapor across the Gulf coast that can potentially lead
to Mid-West droughts and floods (Fig. 4).
4.
Modulation
of tornado activity in the tornado alley through its influence on low level
vertical wind shear and moisture transport from the IAS.
5.
Interannual
summer season rainfall variability in the US Great Plains, Central America and
the Caribbean region (Fig. 4).
6.
North
Atlantic Subtropical High (Fig. 4).
V)
What are the objectives of the IASCLIP Forecast Forum 2010?
1.
To
forecast the seasonal climate for August-September-October (ASO) 2010 for the
IASCLIP region based on the forecasts from the 6 models.
2.
To
highlight issues/errors of the operational climate prediction models over the
IASCLIP region