ATD Significant Accomplishments:
The P-3 Transition and IHOP
1. The Scientific Objective: Studying Water Vapor
Distribution
FY02 was probably one of ATD's busiest years ever. Virtually all of
ATD's staff and almost all of its facilities were involved in preparations for the International H2O
Project. IHOP took place from 13 May to 25 June 2002 in the Southern
Great Plains of the USA, primarily in southwest Kansas,the Oklahoma Panhandle and
surrounding area. The chief aim of IHOP was to improve characterization of the
four-dimensional distribution of water vapor and in turn improve the understanding and prediction of convection. The project
concentrated on convective initiation and atmospheric boundary layer
processes using an optimal mix of water vapor instrumentation and
other supporting systems. Two of the most important instruments were the ELDORA airborne Doppler radar
and Leandre II, a French water vapor Differential Absorption Lidar,
which had to be installed on a military aircraft prior to the field campaign.
2. IHOP Preparations - Transforming a military aircraft into a
versatile research platform
After the decision by NSF and NCAR to retire the Electra aircraft, the Foundation identified a
Naval Research Lab (NRL) P-3 as the only viable, cost-effective
platform to carry the airborne Doppler radar ELDORA, thereby preserving
this important research tool for use by the NSF community. The P-3 actually has
capabilities that exceed those of the Electra, namely, the ability to
fly into hurricanes and longer endurance. Explicit planning for the
transition of ELDORA onto the P-3 was formalized in spring
2001 by appointment of the ATD P-3 Transition Team. The team, lead by
RAF engineer Mike Spowart, included several engineers, technicians,
scientists and administrators from within ATD; the team was charged with
utfitting the P-3 in less than 12 months for two imminent
field programs, IHOP 2002 and Crystal FACE.
The outfitting of the P-3 included:
- Physical transfer and installation of ELDORA from the Electra to the
P-3;
- Installation of the French Leandre II Water Vapor Differential
Absorption Lidar (DIAL) including the design and construction of a
window fairing;
- Development of the "Pip Squeak" eye-safe radar;
- Outfitting of the aircraft interior with instrumentation racks, data
and communications system;
- Installation of supporting meteorological sensors including the
Tunable Diode Laser (TDL).

The ELDORA radome
installed on the NRL P-3 at the Research Aviation Facility hangar.
The radome antenna is being mated to the trail of the P-3. The rest
of the ELDORA equipment was installed in racks inside the cabin.
The transfer of ELDORA and the installation of other
IHOP instrumentation was complicated by a Navy requirement that all
equipment be 20 G compliant. As a consequence, the electronics for
ELDORA, the Aircraft Data System (ADS), the Weater Avoidance Radar
(WARDS) and the French DIAL had to be repackaged and fit into specially-
designed racks built by a Navy contractor and ATD's Design and Fabrication
Services. The repackaging also required major rewiring within the aircraft.
Floor modifications: vecause the equipment required for IHOP
exceeded the allowable floor load limits of the aircraft, major modifications were needed to strengthen the P-3
floor and the weight had to be redistributed. The solution suggested by
NADEP would have delayed the departure of the P-3 into the field by
almost three weeks. So the engineering staff of ATD produced the
design and analysis for an alternative, easier solution and also
constructed the new floor, resulting in only a minor delay in deployment. An example of an engineering analysis carried out during this modification is
shown in the picture below.
Finite element analysis of the P-3 for
determination of its load carrying capacity.
Leandre II: Early in the planning process, IHOP scientists
identified the CNRS Leandre II differential absorption lidar (DIAL) as
one of the most important airborne instruments beeded to achieve the
scientific goals set for the program. Although Leandre is an airborne
lidar and routinely flies on a French aircraft, it had never been
flown on a US aircraft before. Parts of the instrument had to be
reconfigured and put into racks, and the electronics had to be redistributed so
that some parts could be installed under the floor. As a result, major
rewiring was needed and all cables had to be replaced. ATD worked
with the French group from CNRS to install the lidar on
the P-3.
Window Fairing: The IHOP PIs needed Leandre to
operate in not only a downward- but also a sideward-looking mode.
This unique configuration provided for the first ever
quality horizontal cross-sections of water vapor in regions where sharp
moisture gradients were present. IHOP investigators decided to combine
the sideward-looking Leandre data with ELDORA winds data to attempt improved
understanding and predictions of the onset of convective
storms. Because the aircraft has no downward-looking optical port, it was necessary to design and construct a window fairing with a
turning mirror, all of which was designed, built and installed by ATD's Design and Fabrication Services
with help from Performance Composites. The fairing also contained the
antenna for a lightweight 25 KW pulsed, X-band radar affectionately
termed "Pip Squeak" for potential airborne hazard identification and
Lidar laser shutdown. The radar design, which consists of this special
antenna, coherent processing, and a standard transmit-receive unit,
performed flawlessly and provided a level of safety in airborne laser
operations thought by some to be impossible.
Redesign of Scientist Station and Communications:
Modifications also had to be made to the aircraft mission scientist
area. A flat panel monitor was mounted to the table to display
ELDORA data. An improved communications system that simplified
aircraft-to-aircraft and aircraft-to-ground
communications was accomplished when NCAR installed radio and satellite communications
equipment in the forward navigator seating area. Not satisfied with
the current set of tools available for mission scientists to direct
and modify sampling strategies, a real-time flight level constant
altitude PPI (CAPPI) display capability was also added to ELDORA.
State Parameters: Due to time constraints, only the most
important state parameters measuring instruments were installed on the NRL P-3. These
included two unheated Rosemount temperature probes, one heated pitot,
two static ports, a GPS, a hygrometer, pressure transducers, an
Inertial Reference System and a TDL laser hygrometer (shown to the
left). Modifications had to be made to the radome air motion sensing
system and a C-Band radar was installed in the nose of the airplane.
Certifications: Before the airplane left for Oklahoma City,
the entire payload had to be approved and certified by the Naval FAA-equivalent,
the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR). Approval from
a local NAVAIR inspector was needed for the gust probe holes, the TDL
hygrometer, a UHF Freewave radio, the flat panel monitor display in the
scientist area, the Satcom and the VHF radio. NAVAIR also reviewed
all drawings, data and analyses, and physically inspected and signed
off on all structural, electrical and aerodynamic modifications related to the
ELDORA rotodome, Leandre fairing, Leandre and the ELDORA equipment
racks. Last, an EMC test of ELDORA, Leandre, the eye-safety radar and
WARDS had to be conducted before final clearance was issued.
DFS, RAF and NRL folks anxiously awaiting the outcome of the
first P-3 test flight after all installations were completed.
3. The IHOP Field Project
The IHOP field experiment, one of the largest weather-related studies
in US history, took place from 13 May through 25 June 2002. The
project tracked swaths of moisture across the southern US Great Plains in
an attempt to predict better the timing, location and intensity of
summertime storms. Close to 200 investigators and technical personnel
spent a big part of their summer in Oklahoma and Kansas to support
this NSF-funded project, which was led by ATD scientists David Parsons
and Tammy Weckwerth. Because improved rain and snow forecasts are one
of the main goals of the U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP), the project
also received support from NOAA, NASA and DOE.
Heavy rain depends on an ample supply of moisture, so the lack of
water-vapor data is a major impediment to good forecasts. Currently, no device
can track water vapor over large areas. Radiosondes provide most of
the water-vapor data used in forecasting; however, their high cost
reduces the frequency and spacing of balloon launches. Lidars
provides more detail than radiosondes, but they can only sample across a
few miles, and clouds limit measurements. Satellite sensors,
which cover much of the globe, haven't yet furnished the
high-resolution measurements needed in the lower atmosphere for storm
prediction.

With a unique mix of older and newer sensors from the US and Europe,
the IHOP scientists examined how the latest technology can bridge the
gaps in water-vapor sensing. More than 50 airborne and groundbased
instrument platforms were deployed near either Liberal, KS or
Oklahoma City, OK to collect datasets in support of IHOP objectives.
Four out of the six IHOP aircraft carried state-of-the-art remote
sensing systems, including passive and microwave sounders and
differential absorption lidars. Other systems include radiometers
that profile temperature, humidity, and cloud liquid by sensing tiny
amounts of molecular radiation. NCAR's S-Pol radar assessed the
atmosphere's refractivity, allowing identification of horizontal
transitions in moisture content. Sensors on the ground used signals
from the Global Positioning System (GPS) to make slant-path
measurements. The IHOP aircraft and ground-based mobile units
monitored conditions in and near atmospheric boundaries, including the
recurrent dry line, a frontal feature that often serves as a focus for
spring storms. Wind data from profilers already in place across the
network were joined by special radiosonde launches called reference
radiosondes, and a variety of fixed measurement platforms were added for
the experiment, including soil moisture stations.
A strong modeling and nowcasting element was part of IHOP.
Investigators were collocated with operational forecasters from
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center; they examined a suite of models run in
near-real time using a subset of readily-available data.
In summary, more than 50 instruments were deployed, approximately 2500 more
sondes than usual were launched and a total of 36 Intensive Observing
Periods were conducted. Scientists collected 268 hours of airborne
water vapor lidar measurements and 76 hours of satellite
evaluation measurements. And last, IHOP even had its own satellite,
GOES-11, which provided data exlusively for IHOP.
4. IHOP Data
IHOP_2002 was motivated in part by the significant impact on society of
flash floods, which in the US cause billions of dollars in
property damage and the largest number of weather-related fatalities.
The full impact of the IHOP_2002 experiment on operational forecast
systems and the associated impacts to society from improved prediction
of flash floods and other warm season hazardous weather is likely years
away due to the time required for careful analysis of the observations
and the associated theoretical and numerical work. Still, at this time,
we venture to predict two of what may be many potential
dramatic impacts of the IHOP_2002 efforts.
Improvements in Nowcasting Convective Activity
Accurate forecasting of
hazardous weather is typically a nowcasting problem as, for example,
the average lead time for flash flood warnings in this country is
approximately one hour. Thus, systems such as the NCAR Autonowcaster
are extremely relevant to these types of forecast problem. Currently,
such systems rely heavily on the presence of radar fine lines which
often are indicative of where convergence zones that trigger storm
systems may occur. Data Image 1 shows such a radar
reflectivity map on 22 May 2002 taken by NCAR's S-Pol radar during
IHOP_2002. Radar fine lines are indicated with arrows. Early in the
project, we found that interpretation of data from a relatively new
technique called radar refractivity was able to provide additional
clues on where storms might form including sometimes dramatically
providing several hours of lead time on where fine lines might
occur. A potential implication of this approach is that forecast times
for nowcasting storms may be dramatically extended.
The radar refractivity
technique was initially proposed by Professor Frederic Fabry of McGill
University and NCAR collaborators, while Fabry was an Advanced Study
Program Fellow at NCAR/ATD. The technique relies upon the change in
the measured speed of radar signals and on changes in the refractive
index of the air. The time of arrival of the radar signal between
fixed ground clutter signals provides maps of refractive index.
Data Image 2 provides a refractive index map that corresponds to
the radar reflectivity map shown in Data Image 1. Note that the
arrows depicting radar fine lines correspond to gradients in the
refractive index. The reddish colors are indicative of warm and dry
air, while the green colors indicate moist and cool air.
Other examples are shown in Data Image 3 which depicts the evolution
of a phenomenon called a dryline. Drylines mark a sharp mositure
gradient where storms often form and the radar refractivity pattern
showing cool and moist air is representative of a region of heavy rain
that took place a day prior to these measurements (Data Image 4).
Airborne measurements and surface observations taken by NCAR's
Integrated Surface Flux Facility (ISFF) will be used to understand the
implications of variations in surface soil moisture on the boundary
layer and how well models can replicate this type of forcing. A goal
of these boundary layer studies was to understand how surface
heteorogeity leads to variations in atmospheric heat and moisture and
eventually to storm formation. In addition to potentially improving
weather prediction, such analysis also allows us to address the long
standing question of whether boundaries between irrigated and
non-irrigated crop lands are significant from a weather standpoint.

Nocturnal Convection
Large areas of the central US have a nocturnal maximum in rainfall
during the warm season. In contrast, meteorologists typically think of
diurnal radiation balance driving convection that forms during the warm
daylight hours. For nocturnal convection to occur over this region,
there has to be strong forcing to overcome the nighttime cooling. There
has been lively debate on these forcing mechanisms within the community.
IHOP_2002 measurements already have provided unique clues on how
nocturnal convection might be maintained over this region.
Data Image 5 shows radar reflectivity from a
composite of operational and research radars over the region for a
long-lived nocturnal convective system. The reader should note the
reflectivity features that race southward out of the storm moving from
Kansas and Colorado toward Texas. In contrast to the large-scale
horizontal map shown in Data Image 5, Data Images 6 and 7 show
horizontal and vertical cross-sections of reflectivity and velocity
data from NCAR's S-Pol radar showing the wave structure of this
event.
Signal to noise (i.e., a measure of reflectivity), vertical
motion, and horizontal wind data from NCAR's MAPR profiler clearly
show the wave motion in Data Image 8.
However, a careful examination of these data shows the event to be
associated with upward motions are stronger than the downward motions
leading to a general upward displacement associated with this wave
packet. Water vapor measurements taken by the French Leandre lidar
pointed downward from the NRL P-3 in Data Image 9 also show this tendency
as the water vapor field deepens dramatically as the aircraft moves
toward the system (the convective system would lie off the
right-hand-side of this figure). A working hypothesis is that this
event represents a undular bore. During IHOP_2002, these events were
quite common only during the nighttime hours. An important implication
of these measurements is that the convection modifies its own inflow
lifting the air to dramatically reduce the stability and deepen the
depth of the moisture of air flowing toward into the storm. These
changes are favorable for deep convection so that in principal a storm
may modifiy its surroundings to make it more likely for the storm to
continue. Thus the storms provide their own forcing mechanism to
overcome the radiational stabilization of the airmass during the
night.


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